I often travel to external work meetings in relative leisure by train. This also means that there is a bit more time to really reflect on the passing landscape; and it is becoming increasingly obvious how wind turbines dominate the vista. Nowadays these can be real giants, often with a hub height of almost 200 metres. Of course, the aesthetic aspect is a controversial issue, but in these uncertain times it would seem that at least the energy transition is increasingly certain? On Saturday, 2. April 2022 I am Travelling, not for the first time in relatively pleasant spring weather untypical for the location and season, past Schwerin`s still relatively small wind park consisting of eight wind turbines. But today, once again, the wind turbines are hardly moving. The windspeed, according to the weather service, is 27 km/ h (ca.7.8m/ sec.). That is a level that can be categorised as somewhere between a light to moderate breeze. According to official weather data, this windspeed is to be seen as extremely brisk in the Schwerin area for the period between April and November. This statistics show very few days where such high windspeeds are recorded. On the other hand, the winter months in these northern parts are somewhat more storm-battered. Generally speaking, wind turbines reach their maximum output at a nominal speed of around 43 km/ h (12m/ sec. wind force). Therefore, going just by this superficial observation, the wind harvest in this flat open landscape must be relatively modest.
I have read that the intention is to achieve a massive expansion of wind energy by the end of the decade. Basically, the plan is to triple or quadruple existing capacities within just a few years to cover around two percent of the land area - bearing in mind that two percent is still around ten times the area of the federal state of Hamburg. I have now learned that manufacturing the various components of a wind turbine, especially the nacelle, is particularly energy intensive and requires complex assemblies made from high-quality cast steel; but foundry capacities in Europe are apparently limited. On the other hand, the also regenerative solar energy modules contain raw materials that are not exactly green, such as as lead or cadmium. Continuing for force the transition to wind and solar energy will also disproportionately increase the costs of integration into the power network. These system costs are particularly high for solar energy; obviously, during the hours of darkness no energy can be produced. In order to improve the competitiveness of regenerative energy sources, traditional fossil fuels are subject to steadily increasing carbon dioxide subsidies. The postulated aim clearly being to reduce global warming.
Base load is electricity whose energy source is constantly available and which can be regulated up or down to match requirements. This is, of course, not true of either wind or solar energy. The power sources capable of providing base load are, for instance, gas, coal and nuclear power plants. Nuclear power plants have the advantage that they do not pollute the atmosphere with carbon dioxide. In addition, the nuclear plants we still have in Germany are fully depreciated as investments. At the other moment it is not possible to maintain a constant supply of energy in a highly-developed industrialised country purely using regenerative energy sources. On this basis alone, provision of a steady power supply would become a constant game of chance. This is because there are, to date, not suitable storage technologies to enable the necessary provision on a large enough scale. Charging a mobile phone battery is a bit different to storing power to provide an effective and steady supply of electricity to a metropolitan region. It is also true of all storage media that only a part of the energy to be stored can be recovered upon retrieval. This also applies to the transition of regenerative energies to green hydrogen, which is capable of providing a base load - a move outlined regularly in the media. At the moment a number of more extensive largely nebulous scenarios are being presented, which may be able to satisfy the energy needs of a technology-based society, but only somewhat more distant future.
A change of scene: equipped with this rather rudimentary knowledge, I conduct a consultation meeting with a property owner who is looking for a sustainable economic plan with a longer-term outlook for his diverse property holdings, including both residential and commercial assets. He owns a good handful of older properties dating between the 1950 and 1970s, situated mainly south of the river Elbe. Some of these properties within the central area Harburg were not still that easy to rent out even at turn of the millennium, but that is certainly no longer the case today. The conclusion drawn by the owner is that investing in these properties must be worthwhile.
The heating systems in most of his properties are outdated. Investments here would make good sense and, indeed, this is also supported by the legislator. Originally, by 1. January 2025 every newly installed heating system was supposed to have been operated to 65% on renewable energy. However, this initial deadline was scrapped and now the date has even been brought forward a year. But this very short timescale focuses attention even more squarely on heat pumps powered by electricity. The contingent alternative of pellet heating has rather receded due to the dust pollution it causes. It is clear that in well-insulated new buildings with low inlet temperatures and large radiators, these heat pumps work well. In older properties, however, for various reasons they are hardly suitable. In these cases, according to the current state of knowledge, heat pumps tend to be power guzzlers. In addition, too many heat pumps would overload the already heavily utilised power network. In the end, the heat pump is just one example of the still unsolved problems of the energy transition. Nevertheless, the timetables for energy transition is being constantly advanced. But these time constraints are also restricting the path of greater acceptance of technology - which is also needed. In the final analysis, innovations in the building and property industries are also the result of a constantly developing dialogue with practical every day experience. My intense discussion with the property owner remains unresolved on this day.
The author is not a qualified expert on the energy transition. Nevertheless, or perhaps for this very reason, his uncertainty is considerable.
Michael Witt